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APPENDIX III - DEMOGRAPHIC
PROFILE
India is following the demographic transition pattern
of all developing countries from initial levels of “high birth rate
- high death rate” to the current intermediate transition stage
of “high birth rate - low death rate” which leads to high rates
of population growth, before graduating to levels of “low birth
rate - low death rate”.
1. Age Composition
1. (i) The age distribution of the population
of India is projected to change by 2016, and these changes should
determine allocation of resources in policy intervention. The population
below 15 years of age (currently 35 percent) is projected to decline
to 28 percent by 2016. The population in the age group 15 - 59 years
(currently 58 percent) is projected to increase to nearly 64 percent
by 2016. The age group of 60 plus years is projected to increase
from the current levels of 7 percent to nearly 9 percent by 2016.
Table
4 : Age Composition as Percentage of the Total Population2
|
|
Year
|
Below
5 years
|
Between
0-15
|
Between
>15 - 59 years
|
+
60 years
|
|
1991
2001
2011
2016
|
12.80
10.70
10.10
9.7
|
37.76
34.33
28.48
27.73
|
55.58
58.70
63.38
63.33
|
6.67
6.97
8.14
8.94
|
|
|
|
2. Inter-State Differences
2. (i) India is a country of striking demographic
diversity. Substantial differences are visible between states in
the achievement of basic demographic indices. This has led to significant
disparity in current population size and the potential to influence
population increases during 1996-2016. There are wide inter-state,
male-female and rural-urban disparities in outcomes and impacts.
These differences stem largely from poverty, illiteracy, and inadequate
access to health and family welfare services, which coexist and
reinforce each other. In many parts, the widespread health infrastructure
is not responsive.
2. (ii) At least 9 states and union territories
in India have already achieved replacement levels of fertility.
These are ranked in accordance with their total fertility rates.
Additionally, in each of the three tables below, the current population
of each state/union territory, the ratio of this population to the
country population, the infant mortality rate and the contraceptive
prevalence rate of the state / union territory is also indicated:
2 Technical Group on Population
Projections, Planning Commission.
|
Table
5 : Population Profile of 9 States and Union Territories
of India with TFR less than or equal to
2.1
|
|
State
|
Population
Size (in millions)
as on 1
March 1999*
|
Percent
of Total Population
|
Total
Fertility Rate
1997
|
Infant
Mortality Rate
1998
|
Contraceptive
Prevalence
Rate 1999
|
|
INDIA
|
981
.3
|
|
3.3
|
72
|
44
%
|
|
Group
A (TFR less than or equal to 2.1)
|
|
Goa
|
1.5
|
0.2
|
1.0@
|
23
|
27.1
|
|
Nagaland
|
1.6
|
0.2
|
1.5@
|
NA
|
7.8
|
|
Delhi
|
13.4
|
1.4
|
1.6@
|
36
|
28.8
|
|
Kerala
|
32.0
|
3.3
|
1.8
|
16
|
40.5
|
|
Pondichery
|
1.1
|
0.1
|
1.8@
|
21
|
56.9
|
|
A&N
Islands
|
0.4
|
0.04
|
1.9@
|
30
|
39.9
|
|
Tamil
Nadu
|
61.3
|
6.2
|
2.0
|
53
|
50.4
|
|
Chandigarh
|
0.9
|
0.09
|
2.1@
|
32
|
35.0
|
|
Mizoram
|
0.9
|
0.09
|
NA
|
23
|
34.6
|
@ Three year moving average TFR1995-97
*Population Projections by Technical Group on Population Projections,1996
Source: Registrar General of India
2.(iii) There are 11 states and union territories that have a total
fertility rate of more than 2.1 but less than 3.0, ranked accordingly
:
|
Table
6 : Population Profile of 11 States and Union Territories
of India with TFR > 2.1 but < 3
|
|
State
|
Population
Size
(in millions) as
on 1
March 1999*
|
Percent
of Total
Population
|
Total
Fertility
Rate
1997
|
Infant
Mortality
Rate
1998
|
Contraceptive
Prevalence
Rate
1999
|
|
Group
B (TFR > 2.1 and < than 3.0)
|
|
Manipur
|
2.21
|
0.2
|
2.4@
|
25
|
20.1
|
|
Daman
& Diu
|
0.1
|
0.01
|
2.5@
|
51
|
30.2
|
|
Karnataka
|
51.4
|
5.2
|
2.5
|
58
|
55.4
|
|
Andhra
Pradesh
|
74.6
|
7.6
|
2.5
|
66
|
50.3
|
|
Himachal
Pradesh
|
6.5
|
0.7
|
2.5
|
64
|
48.2
|
|
Sikkim
|
0.5
|
0.06
|
2.5
|
52
|
21.9
|
|
West
Bengal
|
78.0
|
7.9
|
2.6
|
53
|
32.9
|
|
Maharashtra
|
90.1
|
9.2
|
2.7
|
49
|
50.1
|
|
Punjab
|
23.3
|
2.4
|
2.7
|
54
|
66.0
|
|
Arunachal
Pradesh
|
1.2
|
0.1
|
2.8@
|
47
|
14.0
|
|
Lakshadweep
|
0.07
|
0.01
|
2.8@
|
37
|
9.1
|
@ Three year moving average TFR1995-97
*Population Projections by Technical Group on Population Projections,1996
Source: Registrar General of India
2.
(iv) However, there are at least 12 states and union territories
that have a total fertility rate of over 3.0. These have been listed
below:
Table
7 : Population Profile of 11
States and Union Territories of India with TFR greater than
or equal to 3
|
|
State
|
Population
Size (in millions) as on 1 March 1999*
|
Percent
of Total Population
|
Total
Fertility Rate 1997
|
Infant
Mortality Rate 1998
|
Contraceptive
Prevalence Rate 1999
|
|
Group
C (>3.0)
|
| Orissa |
35.5
|
3.6
|
3.0
|
98
|
39
|
| Gujarat
|
47.6
|
4.8
|
3.0
|
64
|
54.5
|
| Assam
|
25.6
|
2.6
|
3.2
|
78
|
16.7
|
| Haryana
|
19.5
|
2.0
|
3.4
|
69
|
49.7
|
| Dadra
& Nagar Haveli |
0.2
|
0.02
|
3.5@
|
61
|
29.1
|
| Tripura
|
3.6
|
0.3
|
3.9@
|
49
|
25.2
|
| Meghalaya
|
2.4
|
0.2
|
4.8@
|
52
|
4.6
|
| Madhya
Pradesh |
78.3
|
8.0
|
4.0
|
98
|
46.5
|
| Rajasthan
|
52.6
|
5.4
|
4.2
|
83
|
36.4
|
| Bihar
|
98.1
|
10.0
|
4.4
|
67
|
19.7
|
| Uttar
Pradesh |
166.4
|
17.0
|
4.8
|
85
|
38.2
|
| Jammu
& Kashmir |
9.7
|
1.0
|
NA
|
45
|
15.0
|
@ Three year moving average TFR1995-97 *Population Projections
by Technical Group on Population Projections,1996
Source
: Registrar General of India
|
|
|
2.(v) The five
states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh
that currently constitute nearly 44 percent of the total population
of India, are projected to comprise 48 percent of the total population
in 2016. In other words, these states alone will contribute an anticipated
55 percent increase during the period 1996-2016. Demographic outcomes
in these states will determine the timing and size of population
at which India achieves population stabilisation.
3. Maternal
Mortality
3.(i) With
16% of the world's population, India accounts for over 20% of the
world's maternal deaths. The maternal mortality ratio, defined as
the number of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births, is incredibly
high at 408 per 100,000 live births for the country (1997), which
is unacceptable when compared to current indices elsewhere in Asia.
|
| |
| |
Table
8 : Maternal Mortality Ratios in Asia3
|
| |
Sri
Lanka
|
China
|
Thailand
|
Pakistan
|
Indonesia
|
India
|
Bangladesh
|
Nepal
|
| |
30
|
115
|
200
|
340
|
390
|
437
|
850
|
1500
|
| |
3
UNFPA, The State of World Population, 1999, 6 Billion : A Time for
Choices, 1995 estimates.
|
| |
3. (ii) Within
India, the inter-state differentials are a matter of concern.
|
| |
Table
9 : Inter-State Differences within India in Maternal Mortality Ratios4
|
| |
Kerala
|
Bihar
|
Madhya
Pradesh
|
Rajasthan
|
Uttar
Pradesh
|
Orissa
|
Bangladesh
|
| |
30
|
115
|
200
|
340
|
390
|
437
|
850
|
| |
4. Infant
Mortality
|
| |
4. It is estimated
that about 7 percent of new-born infants perish within a year. Poor
maternal health results in low birth weight and premature babies.
Infant and childhood diarrhoeal diseases, acute respiratory infections
and malnutrition contribute to high infant mortality rates. Additionally,
in India, across the board (rural or urban areas), there are more
female deaths in the age group of 0-14 than elsewhere5. Although
the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has decreased from 146 per 1000
births in 1951 to 72 per 1000 births (1997), and the sex differentials
are narrowing, again there are wide inter-state differences recorded
in 1998, as is clear from Table 4-6. In comparison, we note the
infant mortality rates in South Asia and elsewhere:
|
| |
Table
10 : Infant Mortality Rates in Asia6
|
|
Sri
Lanka
|
Thailand
|
China
|
Indonesia
|
India
|
Pakistan
|
Bangladesh
|
Nepal
|
|
18
|
29
|
41
|
48
|
72
|
74
|
79
|
83
|
|
| |
5. Sex Ratio
5. (i) India
shares a distinctive feature of South Asian and Chinese populations
as regards the sex ratio, with a century's old deficit of females.
The (female to male) sex ratio has been steadily declining. From
1901 to 1991, the sex ratio has declined from 972 to 927. This is
largely attributed to the son preference, discrimination against
the girl child leading to lower female literacy, female foeticide,
higher fertility and higher mortality levels for females, in all
age groups up to 45.
|
| |
4 Registrar General of India.
5 UNICEF, The Progress of Indian States, 1995. India Country Office,
New Delhi.
6 UNFPA, The State of the World Population, 1999, 6 Billion : A Time
for Choices. |
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