Challenge

• To meet all the needs of rapidly growing adolescent and young adult population
• To cater to their increasing expectations for improved quality, spectrum and access to services

Opportunity

• By meeting their felt needs it will be possible to accelerate demographic and socio-economic transition

Paradigm shift needed

• Utilize human resources to accelerate socio-economic growth and improvement in quality of life
  
  
• Bring about convergence and synergy between ongoing programmes to hasten demographic, socio-economic and educational transitions to achieve rapid population stabilization

       Source : Registrar General of India

Global Population Scenario

1960

3.0

1999

3.0

1987

5.0

1999

6.0

  Population Growth

  Population Growth Rate

1969

1999

Population

Crude Birth Rate(CBR) Crude Death Rate (CDR)
Natural Increase %
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Life Expectancy
    Male (years)
    Female (years)

6000 million (1999)

23.0 9.0
1.4 58.0
2.9
 64.0
68.0

• There are significant differences in the age structure between countries of the world and different states in India
• This is partly due to differences in the period of onset of demographic transition and partly due to differences in rate of transition
• Age structure of India is similar to that of the world
• Population pyramid of Kerala is approaching that of more developed countries while that of UP resembles the less developed countries

• In the period between 1996-2016, population in the:

– age group 15-59 will increase from 519 to 800 million

– age group < 15 yrs will decline from 353-350 million

– age group > 60 yrs will increase from 62.3 to 112.9 million

• Dependency ratio will continue to decline

Challenge

• Invest adequately in Human Resource Development (HRD)/skill development

• Provide appropriate employment with adequate emoluments to large work force

Opportunity

• Utilize human resources to accelerate socio-economic growth

Interstate differences

There are massive interstate differences in population, population growth rates, time by which TFR of 2.1 and population stabilisation will be achieved

Five states with 44% of India's population in 1996 will contribute 55% of population growth in the period 1996 to 2016. Performance of these states will determine the year and size of population at which country achieves the replacement level of fertility and later population stabilization.

Source: Technical group on Population Projection RGI 1996

Changes in Age structure, of the population Age group < 15 years

Challenge

• Improve quality and coverage of health and nutrition services, achieve improvement in health and nutritional status and reduction in mortality

• Improve access to education and skill development

Opportunity

• For the first time in decades there is a respite from growing numbers

Age Group 15-59 Years Reproductive Health Care

Challenge

There is a huge increase in the number of persons requiring care, They will:

• Need wider spectrum of services
• Expect better quality of services
• Expect fulfillment of their felt needs for MCH/FP care

Opportunity

• If their felt needs are met through effective implementation of Family Welfare programme, it is possible to accelerate demographic transition and achieve rapid population stabilization

Health Care

Challenge

• Increasing incidence of lifestyle related diseases
• Increasing morbidity and mortality due to accidents and trauma

Opportunity

• This age group is biologically healthy - it is possible to achieve substantial reduction in mortality with minimal interventions and health education to promote healthy lifestyles

Age group > 60 years

Challenge

• Increase social sector investment and add "Quality of life to years"

Opportunity

• To further improve health care and add "Years to life"
• Utilize them effectively for improving social sector programmes

• Unmet need for contraception exists in all states and among all segments of population, but the magnitude of unmet need varies
• Andhra Pradesh has the lowest unmet need for contraception in spite of low age at marriage, low female literacy, problems in accessing health care in some regions
• Unmet needs for contraception is highest in the four States with high CBR
• It is imperative that all the unmet needs for contraception are met through improved quality and coverage of services

• Under-nutrition and IMR are high in Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar
  
• Some of the surveys indicate that under-nutrition is more common in girls than among boys
  
• Low birth weight, poor dietary intake, poor caring practices, lack of access to safe drinking water, infection due to poor environmental sanitation, lack of access to health care are some of the factors responsible for the prevailing high under-nutrition in children
  
• It is essential to provide integrated health, nutrition and contraceptive care to achieve rapid improvement

• Women’s literacy is one of the critical factors that determines and enables them to achieve their reproductive goals
• Literacy improves awareness and enables women to access services; this improves their own well-being, survival of their offspring, and access to contraception
• In spite of relatively low female literacy, Andhra Pradesh will be achieving replacement level of fertility shortly as will Karnataka, West Bengal
• These data suggest that high female literacy is not an essential pre-requisite for reduction in fertility

• There are substantial differences in the per capita SDP between states
• Over the last five decades there has been an improvement in the per capita SDP in most of the states, but the rate of improvement varies
• States with per capita SDP Rs.<10,000 have high natural growth rate of the population
• Kerala has low SDP, but has attained replacement level of fertility
• States like Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra have high SDP but are yet to achieve replacement level fertility
• Improvement in per capita income does not appear to be an essential pre-requisite for decline in fertility

Population Below Poverty Line (BPL%)

Source:  Planning Commission, 1993-94

• There are wide differences between states in the proportion of persons living below the poverty line
  
• This is partly due to differences in the per capita State Domestic Product and partly due to differences in distribution  of income between different groups
  
• Over the years there has been a decline in the proportion of population   living  below poverty line but in terms of actual numbers there has been an increase
  
• States with largest percentage of BPL families have high CBR; this in turn will further reduce per capita income and result in increased number of BPL families.