The most important problem facing India today is the size and growth of its population. The census 2001 has shown that the population of India was 102.70 crores as on 1st March 2001. In the 50 years since 1951 the population of the country has increased from 36.11 crores to 102.70 crores. The average annual exponential growth rate between 1991 and 2001 is recorded at 1.93% which means that the present growth rate may be somewhat lesser. The net addition to our total population during the last decade was about 181 million. As the fertility is falling it may be safe to assume that on the average we may be adding about 17 million people every year to our population during the current decade. On this basis, the population of India is likely to reach about 119.70 crores by 2011. Beyond this period the population projections vary depending upon the assumptions made about fertility and mortality rates. However, generally it is felt that India's population will reach about 140 crores by the year 2026. This projection may be affected by factors like the impact of AIDS and the vigour with which population stabilization programmes are implemented in the intervening period. Population projection beyond a period of 25 years becomes more unreliable due to a number of reasons.

Thus in twenty five years after 2001 we are going to add about 37.3 crores more people to our population, which is about 133 per cent of current population of the U.S.A. and 176 per cent of the present population of Indonesia - the countries coming next to China and India in population size now. A comparison with China is more relevant in the case of India. China's population estimated at 1278 million in 2000 is now growing at about 0.95 per cent annually i.e. an addition of about 12 million people every year compared to the addition of 17 million people in the case of India. Thus India is now adding every year about 5 million people more than China. At this rate there is a possibility that India may overtake China in population size by the middle of the current century. However, this eventuality can be averted if the rate of fertility decline can be accelerated in India. As the fertility levels in China has already gone much below the population replacement level, further decline in fertility may be very slow there. On the other hand in India the potentiality for accelerated fertility reduction through active implementation of family planning measures still remains very high.

India accounts for a meager 2.4 per cent of the world surface area, yet it supports and sustains a whopping 16.7 per cent of world population. As our population is still growing very fast, the pressure of numbers on the natural resources of the country is bound to grow. The density of population has increased from 117 persons per sq.km. in 1951 to 324 persons in 2001. High density population States like Bihar (880) and Uttar Pradesh (689) are now witnessing rapid growth in population which may worsen the already very poor social and demographic indicators in these States. There is no need to say that the population pressure will badly affect the per capita availability of arable land, water for drinking and other purposes and housing. In the area of health care facilities, we are still operating on the basis of 1991 population. But even on that basis there is large infrastructural and human resource gaps prevailing mostly in the high population growth regions of the country. India has the largest concentration of the poor, the illiterate, the sick and the unemployed in the world. Literacy rate especially female literacy is a variable which influences fertility in a major way. Though some progress has been achieved on the literacy front in the last decade, still about 30 crore people in India can neither read nor write. In short, no unbiased observer can deny the fact that uncontrolled growth of India's population during the last five decades has acted as a drag on the country's effort to develop and improve the quality of life of its people. The population explosion will continue to remain the single major hindrance in the path of the country's progress for many more decades to come.

The two main demographic goals of the National Population Policy (NPP) 2000 are achieving the population replacement level TFR 2.1 by 2010 and a stable population by 2045. Though the target of achieving TFR 2.1 implies a two child norm per couple, there seems to be a reluctance in the country to openly promote such a norm. According to the current wisdom prevailing among demographers, India may not be able to achieve replacement level fertility by the year 2010. The NFHS-2 estimated the TFR for India at 2.85 during 1995-99, which is generally considered to be on the optimistic side. SRS estimates of TFR for the period 1996-1998 is 3.2. The SRS figure of TFR of India in 1999 also remains at 3.2. Estimates of TFR worked out on the basis of 0-6 population from 2001 census places India's TFR level at 3.16 for the period 1994-2001. Keeping these estimates in view and pending availability of SRS estimates, it seems reasonable to assume a TFR level of 3.1 for India for the year 2001. However, for getting an idea of future trends in fertility decline, it is also useful to have a look at the recent history of fertility fall in India as given below:

While the TFR fell by 0.5 child between 1971-76, the decline was only 0.2 child in the next five years. During the ensuing five years fertility declined by 0.3 child followed by a sharp fall of 0.6 in the next quinquennium. Again the decline in fertility has remained 0.2 to 0.3 child for the next two five year periods ending in the year 2001. Taking an average, it is observed that fertility has been falling by 0.35 child per quinquennium in India during the last thirty years. On the basis of the trend of somewhat accelerated decline in fertility indicated by the results of census 2001, it seems realistic to assume that the TFR should come down at a slightly higher pace during the current decade than the observed average for the past 30 years; say by 0.8 child for the decade 2001-2011. On this basis the TFR for India can be estimated at 2.3 for the year 2011. This makes it obvious that at the national level India will be able to achieve the population replacement level TFR 2.1 only somewhere between 2011 and 2015. This conclusion is also in line with projections made by some other experts.

Stable Population

The National Population Policy 2000 envisages that India should achieve a stable population by the year 2045. This goal was set on the assumption that the country would have reached the population replacement level TFR 2.1 by the year 2010. In other words after reaching the replacement level fertility, it is expected that about 35 years would be required to reach a stable population. As per the NPP document the stable population is to be consistent with the requirements of sustainable economic growth, social development and environmental protection. In this connection, it may be mentioned that the size, age structure, spatial distribution and rate of growth of the population is very important because these will decide the quantum and pattern of production, distribution and consumption of goods and services in the country. Other problems related to demographic stabilization are maintenance of the balance between the sexes, social, religious and ethnic groups.

Thus, the size of a stable population is not a fixed one but may vary according to the desirable level of a number of variables like the natural resources, the labour force, the standard of living, social and religious concerns. However, in over-populated countries like India and China, the idea of a stable population may relate to a stage where there is no net addition to the population of the country. However, the main point to note is that the process of demographic stabilization involves continued net addition to a country's population for a fairly long period even after reaching the replacement level fertility. For example, in the case of India, the replacement level fertility is likely to be reached by the year 2015 when the net increase in the country's population is expected to be between 14 to 16 million people every year. No doubt, the net addition to population will gradually decline over the years and may reach zero level at some stage. One view is that the stage where there is no net increase in population should be treated as a stable population. Another view is that because of the huge size of the population at its peak level, a desirable stable population should be smaller in size and hence after reaching the peak level a net reduction in population should be encouraged.

The phenomenon of transition to a stable population after reaching the replacement level TFR can be better understood if we compare the Chinese case. China has reached the population replacement level TFR around the year 1990 when the country's population was 1.14 billion. The fertility level in China has continued to fall sharply even after that. Though the estimates of current TFR level in China is not readily available, based on natural growth rate, it is likely to be between 1 and 1.5 children per woman. The present compound annual growth rate of population in China is 0.95 per cent only. In spite of this remarkable achievement in bringing down fertility, the population growth in China continues. According to the population control plans of the Chinese authorities, the country's population should not exceed 1.33 billion in 2005, 1.4 billion in 2010 and should reach the peak level of about 1.6 billion in 2050. After that it is expected that the population would gradually decline. Thus, after achieving the replacement level fertility in 1990, for about 60 years the population of China will be increasing to reach the peak level of 1.6 billion by the middle of the current century. This means an addition of about 457 million people after reaching the replacement level fertility. As already mentioned, the vigorous population control measures implemented by China has already brought down the fertility levels substantially below the replacement level. However, in spite of this achievement, the net increase in population is expected to continue for more than half a century.

In the light of the experience of China, it seems unrealistic to expect that the population of India would stabilize in about 35 years after achieving replacement level fertility. As the family planning programme in India is not implemented with the same urgency and vigour as in China, it is likely that India may take a longer period to reach the peak size of population somewhere in the later part of the current century. Unfortunately, this aspect of the demographic growth taking place in India is not properly appreciated by all concerned resulting in the prevalence of a sense of complacency arising from the belief that the country is very much on the path of achieving the population replacement level TFR and a stable population thereafter in a fairly short period.

Fertility level - States

In terms of fertility levels the States and UTs may be broadly categorized into three groups - those which have already reached TFR 2.1, those which are likely to do so by 2010 and those which may not reach TFR 2.1 by the target year 2010. Analysis of the fertility decline in these three categories is done separately in the following paragraphs.

States and UTs which may have already reached TFR 2.1

Kerala was the first State in India to have reached the TFR 2.1 in 1988. The TFR of Kerala declined from 4.1 in 1971 to 2.1 in 1988, showing a decline of 2 children in a period of about 17 years. The decline in fertility continued in the State to reach TFR level 1.7 in 1994 after which fertility seems to have stagnated at the level of 1.8 till 1998. According to the State Government the present TFR level in the State is 1.96, indicating a spurt in fertility in the last few years. While Kerala is doing very well in regard to most of the other demographic indictors, problems like higher suicide rate, more deaths resulting from road accidents, larger old age population without family support and care because of large scale migration of young people are new problems facing the State.

Tamil Nadu seems to have achieved TFR level 2.1 in the year 1993. It took about 22 years for the State to bring down its TFR level by 1.8 children from 3.9 in 1971 to 2.1 in 1993. It is interesting to note that the TFR level in Tamil Nadu in 1971 was lesser than that of Kerala. The decline in fertility in Tamil Nadu was much slower as compared to Kerala. This may be due to poorer social and demographic indicators of the State as against Kerala. The fact that Kerala is a more compact State in terms of transport and communication facilities with hardly any remote or rural areas also might have speeded the process of fertility decline there. However, the income levels in Tamil Nadu was higher as compared to Kerala. After reaching the replacement level fertility in 1993, the fertility level in Tamil Nadu has not further declined much as has happened in Kerala.

The TFR rate as per SRS figures hovered between 2.2 to 2.0 between 1994 and 1999. The TFR may reach the floor level 1.8 by 2010. In Tamil Nadu still there is considerable scope for bringing down birth rates and improving other demographic indicators like IMR, MMR, CPR, institutional deliveries and age of marriage of girls. The State Government seems to be going for a new strategy of close monitoring of the implementation of the Family Planning programme with the involvement of District Collectors. The programmes to increase the accessibility of the services through more outlets, district specific plans, improved quality and involving the private sector and NGOs should produce better results during the 10th Plan. The experience of Tamil Nadu points towards the need for actively sustaining population stabilization activities even after reaching the replacement level fertility.

The other States and UTs which have already reached TFR level 2.1 (Goa, Nagaland, Delhi, Pondichery, A&N Islands and Chandigarh) may not call for any detailed analysis, as their share in total population of the country is small. No doubt they may have demographic problems peculiar to each. It may, however, be pointed out that only 11 per cent of the people of the country live in States and UTs which have already achieved the population replacement level of fertility so far.

Coming to States and UTs which are expected to reach TFR 2.1 by the NPP target year 2010, it is pertinent to mention that the demographic situation in each major State is different calling for separate analysis.

As per SRS figures the TFR of West Bengal is 2.4 in 1999. The trend in fertility reduction in West Bengal during the past 20 years given below:

The average fall in TFR observed in the case of West Bengal for five year periods is 0.5 child. While it is certain that West Bengal will reach TFR level 2.1 before 2005, if the trend in decline in fertility indicated above is continued the State may reach this target even earlier. The CBR and CDR in the State are also lower than the national average. It is also above the national average in variables like IMR, CPR and literacy rate. The unmet needs for contraception is also low in West Bengal. The State is implementing innovative schemes to provide least cost health care facilities to all and to increase the level of literacy and education with the active involvement of PRIs, NGOs etc. In view of these favourable factors the fertility decline in the State will continue in the immediate future.

Andhra Pradesh is the fourth major State in line for achieving population replacement level fertility. According to SRS estimates the TFR level in the State has reached 2.4 in 1999. Andhra Pradesh is likely to achieve TFR 2.1 before the year 2005, though certain projections have indicated that the State may do so even earlier. The recent history of fertility decline in Andhra Pradesh is given below:-

The sharpest fall in fertility in the State has taken place between 1986 and 1991. Fertility also fell by 0.5 child between 1991 and 1996. The average decline in TFR in Andhra Pradesh during the last 30 years is 0.39 child per quinquennium, which is slightly higher than the national average. However, it may be mentioned that the natural growth rate of population in Andhra Pradesh is only 13.5 in 1999 as against 17.4 for India, indicating significantly lower birth and death rates prevailing in

the State. The performance of the State in the field of Family Planning is reflected in the low level of unmet needs for contraception. The policy of the State Government to fill up all the posts of doctors and ANMs and to train and equip them with latest techniques along with construction of buildings for PHCs seems to have given a solid base for sustaining population stabilization activities in the State. The innovative incentives schemes introduced by the State to provide medical insurance to the adopters of two child norm and to promote institutional deliveries seems to have worked well. Above all the generation of political consensus and administrative commitment to make the Family Planning programme a success appears to have build up wide community support to population control activities. Setting realistic area specific targets and close monitoring to ensure that the targets are reached are other key elements of the Family Welfare programmes in Andhra Pradesh. Andhra Pradesh recorded the largest number of sterilizations of 939 per 10,000 unsterilized couples during 1999-2000. The achievements of Andhra Pradesh in bringing down birth rates has to be viewed in the light of the fact that some of the social indicators in the State are not very favourable. In the case of female literacy rate and the percentage of girls marrying below 18 years age, Andhra Pradesh is below the national average. The IMR in the State is 66, which is very close to the national average of 70. The experience of population stabilization in Andhra Pradesh has clearly shown that active promotion of the small family norm can be made a success even when some of the social indicators remain unfavourable. As the net addition to the State's population in the coming years will progressively decline, the task of improving the overall quality of life of the people will become that much easier.

As per SRS estimates the TFR level in Gujarat has reached 3.0 in 1999. The trend in fertility fall in Gujarat is given below:-

It is seen that after showing sharp decline during the period 1971 to 1991. there is a virtual stagnation of fertility levels in Gujarat. As per SRS estimates, after 1991 there has been no fall in fertility in Gujarat. The TFR level has remained around 3 in the State during the last about 10 years. The CBR and CDR of Gujarat still remain very high though they are below national average. Its IMR at 63 is less than the all India average. The State's literacy level and CPR are significantly above the national level. However as per RCH survey, the unmet need for contraception is 19.73 per cent in Gujarat, which though less than the national average is still on the high side. It may also be mentioned here that Gujarat has witnessed above average decadal growth in population during 1991-2001. In spite of a high per capita income and generally favourable social indicators as shown above, Gujarat's fertility level has been stagnating in the recent past. The performance of the State on the family planning front is moderate.

The number of sterilizations per 10,000 eligible couples has come down from 489 in 1999-2000 to 366 in 2000-2001. There has been a decline in the total number of sterilizations in the State during the last two years. Similar is the case with IUD insertions. While generally following the NPP objectives, the State Population Policy does not spell out any clear strategy to promote the small family norm or to address the question of stagnating fertility rate in Gujarat. As per the present trend, it is doubtful whether Gujarat will be able to reach TFR level 2.1 by 2010 though the State's Population Policy gives such a target. The factors resulting in such a situation may have to be identified and remedial measures adopted so that the objective of reaching TFR 2.1 is achieved at the earliest. There is no need to point out here that reaching this goal is only the first stage in the lengthy road to a stable population.

SRS estimates places Haryana's TFR at 3.2 for the year 1999. The picture of fertility fall in the case of Haryana is given below:-

The average reduction in TFR during the last 30 years works out to 0.63 child per quinquennium. However, in view of the high fertility level of the State at the beginning of the period, the sharp fall in TFR could not bring the State to the replacement level so far. It may be mentioned here that the decadal population growth rate in Haryana during 1991-2001 was substantially higher than the national average. The CBR in the State is higher than the national average while the CDR is lower than the same leading to a higher natural growth in population. The IMR at 67 is slightly less than national average. Haryana is also having favourable social indicators and comparatively higher per capita income.

The sex ratio at 861 is a matter for serious concern. There is considerable scope for speeding up the process of fertility reduction in Haryana and for promoting gender equality. The total number of sterilizations have fluctuated during the last four years. The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples have come down from 432 in 1999-2000 to 338 next year. The performance in case of IUD and condoms is also not encouraging. The State Government is now [ementing a proactive policy for promoting the two child norm and the birth. education and well being of the female child backed by a scheme of incentives and disincentives. In view of this and in the light of the trend in fertility decline observed in the past, Haryana may be able to reach TFR level 2.1 by 2010. However, sustained efforts may have to be continued for taking the State to the floor TFR level of 1.8 over the next decade and a stable population thereafter.

The TFR in Kamataka in 1999 is indicated at 2.5 from SRS. The story of fertility fall in Karnataka during the lat 30 years is given below:

Karnataka had the advantage of a lower level TFR at the beginning of the period. The CBR in Karnataka at 22.3 and CDR at 7.7 are less than the national average. So is the case with IMR at 58. The unmet needs for contraception in the State is estimated at 15.33 per cent as per RCH survey in 1998, which is also below the national average. On the basis of trends in fertility decline in the State, it is likely that the State may reach TFR level 2.1 by 2005. Karnataka has been doing well in the case of contraceptive prevalence rate. However, there appears to be a slackening of performance in IUD, condoms and oral pills during the last few years. There is also a fall in the number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples from 850 in 1999-2000 to 694 in 2000-01. Sustaining the performance on the family planning front is important to shorten the period needed for reaching a stable population in the State.

The TFR level in Maharashtra is estimated at 2.5 in 1999 by SRS. The quinquennial decline in TFR in the State during the last 30 years is shown below:

The CBR and CDR in Maharashtra is lower than the national average. Same is the case with IMR. The unmet needs for contraception in the State is estimated at 19.61 as per RCH Survey 1998, which is somewhat on the higher side. The literacy rate of Maharashtra at 77 per cent is much better than national level. Maharashtra has a larger urban population than many other States. This should also quicken fertility decline. However, the decadal growth in population during the last decade recorded at 22.57 is above the national average. This points towards the need for a more active population stabilization programme, which the State Government seems to be pursuing now including prescribing a two-child norm for politicians. Though the State policy is aimed to achieve TFR level 2.1 by 2004, the trend in TFR decline so far indicates that Maharashtra may achieve this target only by 2010 or so. While the total number of sterilizations and IUD insertions in the State have been increasing during the last 3 years, in the case of condoms and oral pill use no such trend is seen. The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples have also come down from 600 in 1999-2000 to 560 in 2000-2001. Further, decline in fertility and reaching a stable population will largely depend upon the success of the population stabilization programme being implemented in the State.

The TFR level in Orissa as per SRS is 2.7 for 1999. The fertility behaviour in the State since 1971 is shown below:

The fertility decline in Orissa has been somewhat erratic with a jump in the same during certain periods. The IMR level at 97 in Orissa is very high. While the CBR at 24.1 is slightly less than the national average, the CDR at 10.6 is significantly higher than the national level. The literacy rate in Orissa is 64 which is near the national level. The unmet needs for contraception at about 22 per cent is relatively higher. The performance of the State on the family planning front in recent years is not promising. There has been major fall in the total number of sterilizations, IUD insertions and condom users. The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples has fallen from the already low level of 252 in 1999-2000 to 139 in 2000-2001. The State Population Policy is still under formulation. Though Orissa has a scheme of incentives and disincentives to promote the two-child norm, the implementation of programmes are not showing the desired results. The State achieving TFR level 2.1 by the year 2010 may depend upon its performance in increasing the level of contraception from the low levels prevailing now.

As per SRS estimates, the TFR level in Punjab in 1999 is 2.5. The fall in TFR in Punjab during the last 30 years is brought out below:

The average decline in fertility in Punjab is comparatively high. Both the CBR and CDR of Punjab are significantly lower compared to all India average. The IMR at 53 is also much lower than the national average. The unmet needs for contraception is estimated at 14.47 in 1998. Literacy rate is high at 70 per cent. However, the sex ratio at 874 is substantially lower than the national level. The decadal growth in population in Punjab during 1991-2001 at 19.76 is rather high for a State with high per capita income and favourable social and demographic indicators. Fertility has been falling in Punjab more or less consistently in the recent past. The State will be reaching TFR 2.1 before 2010. The State is taking measures to improve its sex ratio and accelerate the process of fertility decline by strengthening the family welfare facilities especially in the rural areas. The performance of Punjab on the family planning front has been good in the recent past. Along with maintaining the birth control programme, Punjab has to improve its sex ratio substantially so that the objective of a stable population can be achieved at the earliest.

The TFR level in Himachal Pradesh is estimated at 2.4 in 1999 as per SRS. The CBR and CDR in Himachal Pradesh are lower than the national average. Same is the case with IMR. The unmet needs for contraception in the State estimated at 19.2 as per RCH survey 1998 though below the national average, is somewhat on the higher side. The literacy rate of Himachal Pradesh at 77 percent is much better than the national average. The decadal growth in population during the last decade recorded at 17.53 is below the national average. The State is likely to achieve the target of TFR 2.1 by 2005 as envisaged in the State policy. While the total number of sterilizations in the State has been increasing during the last three years, in the case of IUD insertions, condoms and oral pills no such trend is seen. The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples has also come down from 453 in 1999-2000 to 308 in 2000-01.

The current TFR level in Manipur is estimated at 2.4. The CBR and CDR in Manipur is lower than the national average. Same is the case with IMR. The unmet needs for contraception in the State is estimated at 36.5 per cent as per RCH survey 1998 which is much above the national average. The literacy rate of Manipur at 69 per cent is better than the national average. The decadal growth in population during the last decade recorded at 30.02 is above the national average. This may be partly due to migration. The contraceptive prevalence rate is low in Manipur. Though the State is likely to reach TFR level 2.1 by 2010, there is a lot of scope for improving the performance on the family planning front.

The current level of TFR in Sikkim is estimated at 2.5. The CBR and CDR in Sikkim is lower than the national average. Same is the case with IMR. The unmet needs for contraception in the State is estimated at 44.8 per cent as per RCH survey 1998 which is much above the national average. The literacy rate of Sikkim at 70 per cent is better than the national average. Though the decadal growth in population during the last decade recorded at 32.98 is much above the national average, the unprecedented growth is due to migration of many skilled and unskilled workers in various projects in the State. The State government has aimed to achieve national target of  TFR 2.1 by 2010 which seems possible. While the total number of oral pill users in the State have been increasing during the last three years, in the case of sterilizations, IUD insertions and condom use no such trend is seen.

The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples has also come down from 145 in 1999-2000 to 84 in 2000-01. There is a lot of scope for increasing the level of contraception in Sikkim. It may be seen that 43.53 per cent of the population of the country live in eleven States which are likely to reach the population replacement level TFR 2.1 by the year 2010. As pointed out elsewhere, some of these States need to more vigorously promote contraception to reach this goal. In the case of States which are more comforta-bly placed to achieve this goal, population stabilization programmes have to be sustained so that the period required for transition to a stable population can be shortened.

in States and UTs which may not reach TFR 2.1 by 2010

The TFR level in UP is 4.7 in 1999 as per SRS estimates. The details of fertility decline in UP during the last three decades is given below:

The decline in TFR in UP between 1971-76 was 0.7 child. After that however, the fall in fertility has been very moderate. The CBR in UP is 32.1 and CDR 10.5 both of which are very high compared to the national average. The IMR in UP is 84 compared to 70 for the country. The literacy rate in UP is only 58. The unmet needs for contraception in UP is very high at 38.42 per cent. The contraceptive prevalence rate in UP is only 30 per cent as per RCH survey 1998. The very slow decline in fertility observed in UP during the last three decades is a reflection of the poor socio-economic indicators in the State combined with poor performance on the family planning front. The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples in UP at 164 in 1999-2000 is one of the lowest in the country. Even this has fallen to 110 during 2000-2001. While there is a continuous decline in the number of condom users during the last four years, the moderate increases achieved in the number of sterilizations, IUD insertions and oral pill users seem to have been more than neutralized by the big increase in the number of couples needing protection every year. According to the State Population Policy the TFR level 2.1 is to be achieved by 2016. This target appears to be unrealistic.

The existence of infrastructure and human resource gaps on a wide scale also is a major hindrance in meeting the unmet needs for contraception in U.P. On the basis of the 1991 population of 13.91 crores, there is a shortage of 2184 SCs and 621 CHCs in UP. There is also a serious shortage of Doctors and ANMs in the State. As the population of the State has increased to 16.61 crores in 2001, the poor coverage of the primary health system in UP can well be imagined. The first task in attempting to meet the unmet needs in the State is, therefore, to cover the infrastructural and human resource gaps on a top priority basis. There is also a case for a proactive promotion of the small family norm on a sustained basis to increase the CPR level in the State. Without this, the large outlays being spent in the Family Welfare sector by the State Government and other agencies are not likely to have any major impact in bringing down fertility rates in UP. At this stage, it is not possible to say as to when UP may achieve the replacement level TFR. The slippage in promoting the small family norm during the last few years after the adoption of the target free approach to family planning needs to be made up, if a breakthrough on the population front is to be achieved in UP.

The TFR in Rajasthan in 1999 is estimated at 4.2 by SRS. The trend in fertility decline in Rajasthan during the last 3 decades is shown below:

It may be mentioned that in the case of Rajasthan there is no secular declining trend in the case of fertility. After a sharp fall of 1.4 children between 1971 and 1976, fertility in fact increased by 0.3 child in the next 5 year period. After 1996, SRS has not recorded any decline in fertility in the case of Rajasthan, the TFR stagnating at 4.2. The CBR at 31.1 is substantially higher than the national CBR. But the CDR of the State at 8.4 is lower than all India CDR, leading to a very high natural growth in population of 22.7 per cent in Rajasthan. The IMR in Rajasthan is 81 as compared to 70 in the country. The high IMR and low CDR appears to be somewhat contradictory.

The literacy rate in Rajasthan is 61 per cent. The decadal growth rate in Rajasthan at 28.33 is the highest among major States. The unmet needs for contraception in the State is 28.25. The performance of Rajasthan on family planning during the last four years is rather mixed. While the increase in number of sterilizations, IUD insertions and condom users has been moderate, there is significant increase in the use of oral pills. The number of sterilizations per ten thousand eligible couples was only 310 in 1999-2000. This has gone down to 261 during the next year. Thus, it seems the increase in the number of couples in the reproductive age has neutralized the modest improvements in the contraceptive use. Rajasthan's primary health system has to serve remote and difficult terrain involving long distances. The State's efforts to mobilize Mahila Shakti mainly through WSHGs seems to be producing positive impact in the rural areas. However, unless the rate of contraception is substantially increased, the State's objective of achieving TFR level 2.1 by 2016 seems difficult to achieve. As per present trends, Rajasthan may take many more years beyond 2010 to reach replacement level fertility.

As per SRS estimates, the TFR level in Bihar in 1999 is 4.5. The TFR trends in the State from 1981 onwards is given below:

The fairly rapid fall in TFR which has taken place between 1981 and 1991 could not be sustained by Bihar. In fact, after 1991 practically there has been no decline in fertility in the State. Regarding social indicators prevailing in Bihar, the literacy rate is only 49%, IMR 66 and unmet needs for contraception 42.03. However, the most serious problem in Bihar seems to be the poor state of affairs of the primary health delivery system. Apart from large gaps in infrastructure and human resources, the available SCs, PHCs etc. are also not functioning satisfactorily due to various administrative reasons. On the basis of 1991 population the shortage of SCs is 1026, PHCs 428 and CHCs 511. There is also non-availability of doctors and ANMs apart from the problem of such functionaries not attending to their duties. There has been a serious deterioration in the family planning performance in the State especially during the last two years.

The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples was 106 in 1999-2000. This has further declined to 37 during the next year. This is the lowest for any major State. As of now no clear strategy seems to be in place in Bihar to tackle the population problem. The State Population Commission and the State Population Policy under formulation should be able to give the required directions in this regard. The PRIs in Bihar appears to have become active after the elections to them sometime back. The elected PRIs should be able to play an important role in all developmental activities including the promotion of the small family norm. The first priority should be to make the primary health system functional by filling up gaps both of facilities and personnel and bringing about accountability. Then only the large unmet need for contraception existing in the State can be met. The State Government has given itself a target of reaching TFR 2.1 by the year 2015. This seems unrealistic to achieve. It is not possible to project precisely the year by which Bihar may reach the population replacement level fertility.

On the basis of SRS estimates, the TFR level in Madhya Pradesh is 3.9 in 1999. The story of fertility decline in the State is brought out below:

disincentives to promote the two-child norm and womens empowerment. While it may be possible to expect that these initiatives would make an impact, there should be concerted effort to increase the rate of contraception if the aim of reaching TFR 2.1 at the earliest is to be achieved. As per indications available now, Madhya Pradesh is likely to take many years beyond 2010 to achieve replacement level fertility.

SRS estimates show that the 1999 TFR level in Assam is 3.2. The history of fertility decline in the State is given below:

The fertility decline in Assam has fluctuated. Initially it fell by 1.2 children in five years. Between 1986 and 1996 also the fall in fertility was substantial. However, after 1996 there is a stagnation ofTFR at 3.2. The IMR of Assam is 76 and literacy rate 64. The unmet needs for contraception is very high at 37.55 per cent. The family planning performance in Assam is poor. The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples at 76 during 1999-2000 is the lowest in the country. This has further gone down to 26 next year. Though there are enough number of SCs in Assam, the service delivery seems to be very poor. The virtual stagnation of fertility in recent years is an indication that much needs to be done to promote the level of contraception in the State. Unless family planning measures are implemented actively to meet the high unmet needs, the aim of reaching TFR 2.1 by 2010 is not achievable.

Jharkhand carved out of Bihar is mainly a tribal State. The demographic indicators of the State are generally worse than those of the parent State of Bihar. Though no separate estimate of TFR is available for Jharkhand, it is likely to be more than 4.5 of Bihar, because the CBR in the State at 32.8 is more than that of Bihar. In view of the low literacy rate (57), high IMR (72), low CPR (28) and high percentage of population below poverty line (54), the aim of the State Government to achieve TFR level 2.1 by 2010 seems unrealistic. Jharkhand is also suffering from serious shortfall of doctors, ANMs, paramedics etc. The efforts of the State Government to improve the health care infrastructure and the reach and quality of services should help bring down the high level of unmet needs for contraception.

Chhattisgarh created out of Madhya Pradesh is also largely a tribal State. Separate figures of demographic indicators are not yet available for the State. As per data on a few indicators available, Chhattisgarh seems to be better placed. The decadal growth of population in the new State was only 18.06 compared to 24.34 in Madhya Pradesh. While the literacy rate is 64 as in M.R, the sex ratio is 990 in Chhattisgarh as compared to 920 in M.R In view of the non-availability of separate data for Chhattisgarh, it is not possible to say anything about the year by which Chhattisgarh may reach TFR 2.1. The State Population Policy under formulation may throw more light on these aspects as and when the same is published.

The demographic indicators of Uttaranchal is better than the parent State of U.P. The decadal growth of population was 19.2 per cent compared to 25.80 for U.P. The present TFR level in the State is estimated at 3.06 compared to 4.5 for U.P. The population problem is to be tackled mainly in the Haridwar District, though the hilly areas suffer from inadequacy of infrastructure and human resources. In the absence of separate time series data on fertility decline in Uttaranchal, it is not possible to project the year by which the State may reach replacement level TFR. However, it can be safely assumed that the State may do so earlier than U.P.

The current level of TFR in Tripura is estimated at 3.9 (SRS-1998). The CBR and CDR in Tripura are lower than the national average. Same is the case with IMR. The unmet needs for contraception in the State is estimated at 12 per cent as per RCH survey 1998, which is less than the national average. The literacy rate of Tripura at 74 per cent is better than the national average. The decadal growth in population during the last decade is recorded at 15.74. The State has aimed to achieve TFR level 2.0 by 2010 which may be difficult to achieve in view of the poor family planning performance in the State. The total number of sterilizations in the State has been decreasing during the last three years. In the case of IUD insertions, oral pill and condom use also no progress is seen. The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples has also come down from 161 in 1999-2000 to 104 in 2000-01. The decline in fertility and reaching a stable population can be facilitated if the contraceptive prevalence rate is increased.

The current level of TFR in Meghalaya is estimated at 4.0. The CBR and CDR in Meghalaya are slightly higher than the national average. However, the IMR is below the national average. The unmet needs for contraception in the State is estimated at 52.6 as per RCH survey 1998 which is much higher than the national average. The literacy rate of Meghalaya at 63 per cent is below the national average. The decadal growth in population during the last decade recorded at 29.94 per cent is more than the national average. While the total number of sterilizations, oral pill and condom use in the State has been increasing during the last three years, IUD insertions has shown a decreasing trend. The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples has increased from 45 in 1999-2000 to 50 in 2000-01. The year by which TFR 2.1 will be reached in the case of Meghalaya cannot be easily projected in the absence of separate data for earlier years. There is considerable scope for promoting family planning and speeding up fertility decline.

The estimate of current level of TFR in Jammu & Kashmir is not available. The CBR of the State at 31.4 is higher than the national average. The CDR in Jammu & Kashmir is lower at 7.9. The IMR at 45.4 is significantly below the national average. The unmet needs for contraception in the State is estimated at 26.9 as per RCH survey 1998, which is more than the national average. The literacy rate of Jammu & Kashmir at 54.46 per cent. The decadal growth in population during the last decade recorded at 29.04 is above the national average. The performance of the State in the area of family planning leaves much to be improved. The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples was only 78 in 2000-2001. There is a lot of scope for increasing the level of contraception in the State. It is difficult to say by which year the State may reach replacement level fertility.

The estimate of current level of TFR in Arunachal Pradesh is not available. The CBR at 22.3 and CDR at 6 is less than the national average. The IMR at 48.5 is less than the national level. In the case of literacy rate, Arunachal Pradesh is below the national average. The decadal growth in population during 1991-2001 was 26.21 per cent. The family planning performance in Arunachal Pradesh is poor. The unmet needs for contraception is estimated at 48.5 per cent. The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples is only 61 in 2000-2001. There is a lot of scope for increasing the level of contraception. In the absence of time series on TFR estimates, it is not possible to say by which year Arunachal will reach replacement level fertility.

Current TFR estimate is not available for Mizoram. The CBR is estimated at 17 and CDR at 5.5. The IMR is also low at 19. The unmet needs for contraception in Mizoram is estimated at 26.4. The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples has increased from 167 in 1999-2000 to 286 in 2000-2001. Though the demographic indicators in Mizoram are comparatively better, in the absence of estimates of TFR, it is difficult to project the year by which it will achieve the population replacement level TFR.

The current level of TFR in Dadra & Nagar Haveli is estimated at 3.5. The CBR in Dadra & Nagar Haveli is slightly higher and the CDR is less than the national average. The IMR is below the national average. The unmet needs for contraception in the State is estimated at 21.6 as per RCH survey 1998, which is less than the national average. The literacy rate of Dadra & Nagar Haveli at 60 per cent is below the national average. The decadal growth in population during the last decade recorded at 59.20 may be the result of migration also. The total number of sterilizations in the UT has been increasing during the last three years. In the case of IUD insertions, oral pill and condom use no such trend is seen. The number of sterilizations per 10,000 couples has decreased from 225 in 1999-2000 to 107 in 2000-01. The projection of the year for reaching TFR level 2.1 is difficult in the absence of data for previous years.

It can be seen that 45.45 per cent of the total population of the country belong to the sixteen States and UTs now witnessing above average population growth. Among the major States only UP and Bihar indicated a rising growth trend during the last decade while others have shown a declining growth rate. The population of these States increased from 36.27 crores in 1991 to 45.45 crores in 2001 showing a net addition of 9.18 crores during the last decade. As per certain projections available now, the population of these States may increase to about 55 crores by the year 2011 constituting about 47 per cent of the total population of the country at that stage. The addition of 9.55 crores of people in these high fertility States will constitute 56 per cent of the total expected increase in the country's population during the current decade. Thus, it is obvious that the population stabilization programmes are to be made effective mainly in these States. Generally speaking, there has been a decrease in the rate of contraception in the high growth States in recent years. The promotion of the small family norm seems to have received a serious set back. The level of unmet needs have increased. The fertility levels have either stagnated or increased.

There appears to be an urgent need for bringing back promotion of contraception as the main concern of Family Welfare programmes in these States and UTs. The couples' felt need for contraception should be fully met. The infrastructural and human resource gaps hindering this task should be covered. The experience in other States have already shown that demographic stabilization programmes can be implemented within the democratic framework without any coercion. If the necessary political and administrative commitment is forthcoming, the generation of community support for the programme will not be very difficult.

Socio-demographic Indicators: India & States